Integrating land use and land cover change simulations and connectivity modeling: a case study in the Monteregie region in southern Quebec

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jeudi 19 déc. 11:35 AM (15 minutes)
Salle AB
Space is a finite resource. How we, as a community, manage and govern space is a reflection of the trade-offs and choices made by different people and organizations at different spatial and temporal scales. Those choices determine and regulate land use: if and how the resources held on the land are exploited, transformed or conserved. Land use can strongly affect biodiversity and ecosystem function. One example of ecosystem function affected by land use is ecological connectivity, defined as the extent to which the landscape supports the movements of organisms. It is an important component of the resilience of biodiversity in heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes. Land use changes such as urban sprawl can cause deforestation by fragmenting habitats, which erodes ecological connectivity. Many urban landscapes are experiencing uncontrolled urban sprawl and have suffered losses in connectivity and ecosystem services in consequence. One example is that of Monteregie in southern Euevc. It is therefore of prime interest for biodiversity science to understand land-use change. We present a framework that integrates land-use change and connectivity modeling to predict future changes in connectivity, using a mixture of statistical modeling, MCMC-based simulations, and circuit theory. We present preliminary results and contrast the past and future impacts of continuing trends in land use transformations in the region: urbanization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation.
McGill University
M.Sc. Student

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